Connexion
/ Inscription
Mon espace

The commentary of Mark Burgess, Chief Investment Officer de Threadneedle Investments

ER - Analyses de marchés
ABONNÉS

"Looking back on 2012, it would be fair to say that given the difficult macro backdrop and the many challenges facing the developed world, risk assets performed much better than many commentators had expected. Within equities, most markets gave comfortable double digit returns despite modestly weakening corporate profits, and negative revisions to GDP growth. Within fixed income, credit and emerging market debt performed well, with returns positively correlated with the riskiness of the investment. Only core Government bond markets gave a disappointing return, but then given the starting yield that was always going to be the case. As we have discussed many times, there were two key drivers to this outcome: In a low interest rate environment, income starved investors were forced to seek out alternative yielding assets and became increasingly more adventurous in the types of investments they considered. The central banks’ various QE policies both crowded out investors, exacerbating this trend, and provided a favourable liquidity backdrop to the market and saw all credit spreads narrow significantly. The second driver was the very robust performance of corporate balance sheets. Companies are at a multiyear high in terms of their financial strength, with record profit margins and prodigious cash flow. As a result the risk of default or bankruptcy, despite the challenging macro backdrop, was deemed low. Investors therefore became increasingly confident of the safety of both their dividends and corporate bond coupons, and rerated asset classes accordingly. This also acted as a catalyst to corporate treasurers to kick-start the bond issuance pipeline and take advantage of the falling cost of corporate debt, even if the cash was used for nothing more than share buy-backs (which in itself was value accretive).

“This all begs the question as to how 2013 might turn out given how well markets have performed over the last 12 months. It is our view that we should still have a satisfactory year. The defining feature is still going to be the zero interest rate environment. Developed world growth is still low by historic standards, western economies are over indebted and the financial system is undercapitalised: Interest rates aren’t going up any time soon. This will continue to force investors to seek out yielding assets and will provide markets with the support it provided last year. However, in our view things are getting a little better: In China we have seen the leadership transition and the end of the accompanying uncertainty has been a boost for both growth and the Chinese stockmarket. In the US, it remains our view that, although it is not yet resolved, a compromise will be reached on the fiscal cliff and this too should provide a boost to growth. In any event, the US housing market continues to recover from very low levels which is supportive of the US banking sector and consumer sentiment. In Europe (both UK and continental), while we are likely to be in mild recession this year, the situation does not appear to be getting any worse and it is probable that the worst of the problems of the banking system are behind us.

“Against this backdrop, it is no surprise that markets have had such a positive start to the year, and it may well be that some profit-taking is in order. Nevertheless, we retain our overweight position to risk assets and expect equities in particular to make further positive progress in 2013. On a number of metrics, valuations are still supportive, and at some stage the M&A cycle will pick up as companies put their cash to work constructively. Our stance is therefore predicated on a safe middle ground- some growth so that economies can continue to rebuild and repair the damage done by the global financial crisis, but not too much growth so that rates remain low. For now we appear on track, but we will clearly monitor developments very closely."

Lire la suite...


Articles en relation

ER - Analyses de marchés
ABONNES
Annonces présidentielles : quelles conséquences fiscales et budgétaires ?

Suite à l'intervention télévisée du Président de la République le 10 décembre dernier en réponse aux protestations du mouvement des gilets jaunes, Eric Pichet, Professeur et Directeur du Mastère Spécialisé Patrimoine et Immobilier (IMPI) à KEDGE, analyse les conséquences fiscales et budgétaires de ces annonces. « Les mesures de soutien au pouvoir d'achat des actifs dès le 1er janvier 2019 s'inscrivent dans la droite ligne du projet présidentiel pour faire en sorte que le travail paie sans...

ER - Analyses de marchés
ABONNES
Le point de marché mensuel de Michel Lemosof

Les marchés face à une liquidité réduite et à une volatilité augmentée La direction des marchés ne correspond pas toujours à celle qu'attendent les investisseurs. Avec l'accalmie sur le front de la guerre commerciale sino-américaine, un mieux semblait se dessiner, mais l'arrestation de la directrice financière de Huawei a jeté le trouble. Le groupe chinois serait soupçonné d'avoir enfreint les sanctions américaines contre l'Iran… Des actifs pestiférés « Deux préoccupations majeures se sont...

ER - Analyses de marchés
ABONNES
Les conséquences du Brexit pour le secteur financier français et européen

Extrait du discours de François Villeroy de Galhau, Gouverneur de la Banque de France et Président de l'ACPR. Mesdames et Messieurs, … Je salue l'accord qui a été trouvé la semaine dernière entre les négociateurs européens et britanniques et nous espérons tous que celui-ci franchira les prochaines étapes jusqu'à sa finalisation. Mais dans un contexte encore incertain, la prudence s'impose : même si nous ne la souhaitons pas, nous devons aussi nous préparer à faire face à une situation...

ER - Acteurs du secteur financier
ABONNES
[Les entretiens d'Esteval] Bruno Colmant, Degroof Petercam

« Nous devons retrouver une économie solidaire et basée sur l'intérêt général » Débats télévisés, émissions de radio, couvertures de presse : le livre de dialogue entre Bruno Colmant, chef économiste de Degroot Petercam, et le prêtre Eric de Beukelaer, ancien proche collaborateur du cardinal Lustiger à Rome, fait un carton en Belgique (1). Il est vrai que leur conversation aborde des sujets qui nous concernent tous, au croisement de la morale et de l'économie. « Le capitalisme anglo-saxon...