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Rallies, Rates and Risk in Emerging Markets

ER - Analyses de marchés
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Nordea’s Jorry Rask Nøddekær is optimistic about Emerging Markets in 2017

Nordea’s Jorry Nøddekær, manager of the Nordea’s Emerging Stars Equity strategy, is optimistic about Emerging Markets in 2017. Despite the fact that Trumponomics in its present form could pose a threat to exporting countries, he expects these economies to perform well and deliver growth opportunities. He recently sat down with Nordea Asset Management to talk about his outlook on Emerging Markets.


NAM : Emerging Markets equities started 2017 strong. Can this rally continue?

JN : In 2016, we saw some really good fundamental recovery in Emerging Markets - there’s been some good progress which has definitely continued in 2017. We remain quite constructive for Emerging Markets for the rest of the year in light of continuous earnings momentum and generally positive economic performance. We may see a bit more volatility around the summer period as strongly cyclical factors kick in, but overall we are confident and see quite good growth opportunities.

 Comprendre l'économie durable pour s'y investir

 

NAM : Can China successfully move from export- and investment-led growth to consumption-driven growth?

JN : China functions between an “old economy” and a “new economy”, and we have been really supportive of the investment scene around China’s new economy. We definitely think that it’s very sustainable and has a significant way to go. We see this in how the index is changing - the new economy is significantly more reflected in China. I think, on that parameter alone, we are definitely seeing a transition taking place there at the equity market level.


NAM : How do you see US interest rates evolving and how could this impact flows into Emerging Markets?

JN : There is a high likelihood that we will continue to see US rates moving up, though we do think it will be quite gradual. The likelihood of an aggressive overshoot or something like that is actually quite minimal, as we do see a high probability of the US economy rolling over or at least not continuing to grow strongly. This environment could be quite supportive for the development and economic trends in Emerging Markets, which don’t respond well to spikes or peaks.


NAM : Do you consider Trumponomics to be a risk for Emerging Markets? How does your portfolio deal with this?

JN : Trumponomics is certainly a risk element for Emerging Markets, and we need to be aware of this. We make sure that we are aware of what kind of exposure we have to exporting countries and companies. When we do invest in something in these areas, we want to make sure that these companies produce products that have a strong competitive advantage and that they have pricing power so in the case of any form of tax, they’ll be able to pass it on.


NAM : Where do you currently see the biggest opportunities in Emerging Markets?

JN : We still see a tremendous number of opportunities in Emerging Markets. We are optimistic not only on the short term, but in particular on the long term. A lot of these opportunities exist in domestic development, like urban consumers in India, healthcare reforms in China and export companies that are uniquely positioned in the technology space. We think technology in Emerging Markets offers tremendous opportunities.

https://www.nordea.com


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